AC Milan v Benfica: control, pressure and two unbeaten runs

AC Milan and Benfica begin the Europa League league stage with unbeaten records in their recent competitive campaigns. Milan have drawn their last two matches, while Benfica have won six in a row. The central question at San Siro is whether Milan can disrupt Benfica’s control of the ball and limit the visitors’ repeated attacks in the most productive parts of the pitch.

AC Milan and Benfica have no points from the Europa League league stage yet, with this listed as League Stage - 1. Benfica are ranked fourth in the table and AC Milan are ranked 23rd, although both have played no matches in this competition. The numbers that matter most before kick-off come from their recent domestic campaigns. Milan have played four Serie A matches, winning two and drawing two. They have scored seven goals and conceded four. Benfica arrive with six wins from six in the available season record. They have scored 19 goals and conceded six, with one clean sheet. Their home and away splits in the Europa League table are still untouched, with both clubs recording zero played, wins, draws and losses in each venue split. This is therefore a fresh competition start, but not a blank form guide.

The club announcements supplied for this preview focus on the matchday schedule. Benfica published a plan with a training session open to the press for the first 15 minutes, a charter flight from Lisbon to Milan and a press conference at San Siro. AC Milan’s published schedule included a press conference and a training session open to the press for the first 15 minutes at Milanello. Benfica also published the referee appointment. UEFA’s Referees Committee selected Jarred Gillett for the match. The announcement says the Australian has been an international referee since 2013. No player absence is identified in the available team material, so the clearest selection clue is Benfica’s regular shape: 4-2-3-1 in four of five measured matches, with 4-1-3-2 used once. Marco Silva has been Benfica’s manager since 1 July 2026.

AC Milan’s recent run has moved in a positive direction, even though the latest two games ended level. They beat Venezia 2-0 at home, then Torino 2-1 away. Those wins followed a 4-2 friendly victory over Manchester United. Milan then drew 1-1 with Juventus and 2-2 with Lazio, two results that leave them unbeaten across their four Serie A matches. Benfica’s sequence is more emphatic. They have won their last six, beating GIL Vicente 3-1, Moreirense 4-0, Maritimo 3-0 and Estoril 2-1, after two 3-1 wins over Aarhus. The opposition mix differs from Milan’s: Benfica’s run includes five Primeira Liga matches and one club friendly, while Milan’s measured sequence includes Serie A and friendlies. That makes Benfica’s margin of results striking, but the level and setting of the opponents still matter when judging how much of that dominance will carry into San Siro.

The underlying profiles point towards Benfica having more of the ball. They average 65.5 per cent possession, 18.5 shots and 8.2 shots on target across six measured matches. AC Milan average 58.5 per cent possession, 13.5 shots and 4.3 shots on target. Both teams are comfortable building attacks, but Benfica combine control with more frequent efforts at goal. The chance-quality gap is also clear. Benfica average 1.67 expected goals per match and 0.24 expected goals against. Milan average 1.43 expected goals and 1.42 expected goals against. That suggests a match in which Milan may need to defend longer spells and make their own attacks count, while Benfica will look to turn possession into pressure rather than simply circulate the ball. Benfica’s main individual threat is Vangelis Pavlidis, who has five goals and one assist in three appearances. Rafa has added two goals and one assist in four appearances. AC Milan’s task will be to prevent Benfica’s attacking players from receiving clean service as the visitors move through their usual 4-2-3-1.

UEFA’s match briefing says AC Milan have an unbeaten record against Benfica, with four wins and two draws. It also notes Milan’s victories in the 1963 and 1990 European Cup finals. Those meetings provide context, but this is a new fixture in a different competition and a different season. The available head-to-head figure does not separate the results by venue, so it should not be treated as a complete guide to what Benfica face away from home. The bookmakers make AC Milan slight favourites. Their observed probabilities give Milan 45.2 per cent, a draw 26.6 per cent and Benfica 28.2 per cent. That is a narrow market lean rather than a decisive gap, and it sits alongside Benfica’s six-match winning run and stronger recent underlying numbers.

Benfica’s next listed fixture is in the Primeira Liga, four days after this match. That gives the squad a short turnaround after the trip to Milan and creates a clear scheduling factor for Marco Silva to consider. The data does not identify AC Milan’s next fixture, so the confirmed follow-up is Benfica’s league match and the four-day gap attached to it. The timing matters because this is the opening Europa League league-stage match. Benfica must balance the demands of a European away game with a domestic fixture arriving quickly. The schedule shows the pressure on recovery, but it does not establish which players will start or be rested.

The numbers point towards a match where Benfica’s attacking volume will test Milan’s ability to stay compact. These are the details worth following from the first whistle:

• Whether Benfica can turn their 65.5 per cent average possession and 18.5 shots per match into clear chances against Milan.
• Vangelis Pavlidis’s movement and finishing after five goals and one assist in three appearances.
• The late spell: AC Milan have scored six of their seven measured scoring-window goals between 61 and 75 minutes, while Benfica’s peak scoring and conceding band is 31-45 minutes.