Alpendorada and Casa Pia meet with contrasting scoring patterns

Alpendorada welcome Casa Pia to Municipal Stadium Alpendorada for a Round of 64 tie in the Taça de Portugal. The clearest early clue is the opening 15 minutes: Alpendorada have scored twice in that spell, while Casa Pia have conceded twice. Whether that pattern holds could shape the game’s first important passage.

This is a cup tie at Alpendorada’s ground, so the home team can look to its own venue figures for a starting point. Alpendorada have played two matches in the season figures. They kept a clean sheet at home and have not failed to score in their home matches. Those numbers offer a positive baseline, though the sample is small and says little on its own about how this particular tie will unfold.

Casa Pia’s eight-match season record gives a different picture across venues. They have failed to score in three home matches and three away matches, while their away record includes one clean sheet. The away shut-out shows they can keep an opponent scoreless on the road, but the repeated scoring blanks make finding a goal a central task. Alpendorada, meanwhile, will want to make their home scoring figures count against a side whose away record has both a defensive high point and a clear attacking problem.

Casa Pia have used a 4-2-3-1 formation in all five matches measured for their team shape. That gives a consistent framework to watch, particularly in how they balance the two deeper midfield roles with the attacking line ahead of them. The figures describe a repeated formation, not a confirmed team for this cup tie.

Alpendorada’s shape figures cover two matches, and the recorded regular starters appeared in both. No player names or individual contribution figures are included in the available team-shape details, so there is no named absence to link to minutes, goals or assists here. The clearest team detail to carry into the match is therefore Casa Pia’s settled formation, rather than a claim about who will or will not play.

Alpendorada’s most recent listed result was a 3-0 home win over Mação. Before that came a 2-2 draw away to Rebordosa, then a 0-3 home loss to Casa Pia and a 3-1 home win over Estrela. The sequence is mixed, but the latest result is their strongest listed performance by margin. Their two wins also show they have found goals in more than one match, while the draw confirms they have taken a point away from home.

Casa Pia’s listed run starts with a 0-1 home loss to Santa Clara, following a 2-1 away win at Estoril. They had earlier lost 1-4 at home to FC Porto, drawn 0-0 away to Vitória SC, and lost to Moreirense and GIL Vicente. The away win and draw show two different ways they have taken points on the road, but the latest result was a defeat and the run includes several matches without a goal. The opponents named in these results provide context, but the figures do not establish how either side performed against comparable opposition overall.

Casa Pia’s measured attacking profile points to a side that has had limited output in front of goal: 10.8 shots per match, with 2.8 on target and 0.56 expected goals per match. Their average possession is 42.7 per cent, and their pass accuracy is 73.3 per cent. Those figures suggest that the key question is not simply how much of the ball Casa Pia have, but whether their attacks produce enough efforts on target and clear chances.

The opening quarter-hour offers a specific test. Alpendorada’s scoring record is strongest from 0 to 15 minutes, with two of their three goals in that band. Casa Pia have conceded twice in the same period, but their larger defensive concern in the scoring-window figures comes later: they have let in four goals in each of the 46-60 and 61-75 bands. If Alpendorada can carry their early threat into the second half, Casa Pia will need to manage both spells carefully.

There are no named creator or ball-winner figures to define an individual duel. The useful contest is therefore at team level: Alpendorada’s early scoring threat against Casa Pia’s ability to limit shots and improve the quality of chances they allow. Casa Pia’s expected goals against average is 1.29 per match, compared with 0.56 expected goals for. Those figures make their defensive work and attacking efficiency central to the match-up.

The teams have met once in the recorded head-to-head, and Casa Pia won 3-0 at Alpendorada. That is the most relevant historical result for this fixture because it came at the same venue, but a single meeting is a narrow basis for judging what happens next. Alpendorada’s latest listed match was a 3-0 win over Mação, while Casa Pia’s most recent listed result was a 0-1 defeat to Santa Clara. Those more recent results give a different snapshot of each side’s form than the head-to-head alone.

Casa Pia’s next listed fixture is in the Primeira Liga, six days after this cup tie. That gives their schedule a clear short-term marker after the visit to Alpendorada. The timing is relevant context around the fixture, but it does not establish what selection choices the club will make. No next fixture is listed here for Alpendorada, so the focus for them remains on this home tie and the challenge of turning their scoring pattern into a strong performance.

The numbers point to three clear checkpoints during the tie: the opening spell, Casa Pia’s work after the break and the visitors’ ability to turn their attacks into goals.

• Alpendorada’s start: they have scored twice in the opening 15 minutes, while Casa Pia have conceded twice in that same band.
• The second-half spells: Casa Pia have conceded four goals in each of the 46-60 and 61-75 periods, their joint peak conceding bands.
• Casa Pia’s threat: their measured average is 2.8 shots on target and 0.56 expected goals per match, so watch whether their attacks produce more pressure in front of goal.