Benfica controlled the contest, but left chances unused

Benfica beat Vitória SC 2-0, but the scoreline understates how much control the hosts held and how little they turned it into shots on target. The clearest divide was at the ends of the pitch: Benfica made their pressure count twice, while Vitória finished with no effort on target.

Benfica had the larger share of the ball and the greater volume of attempts, but the first half remained close on the scoreboard. Samuel Dahl scored in the 24th minute, with Vangelis Pavlidis assisting, and Benfica carried a 1-0 lead into half-time. Vitória’s efforts to disrupt the rhythm showed in their fouls and bookings, but they did not turn that resistance into a shot on target.

The score stayed at 1-0 through a spell of changes from both teams. Benfica made two substitutions in the 61st minute, then brought on Heorhii Sudakov in the 73rd. Two minutes later, Sudakov scored, assisted by Claudio Echeverri, and the margin became two. That goal gave Benfica the cushion their shot volume had threatened to create, while Vitória’s final changes came with the contest already at 2-0.

Dahl’s opener gave substance to Benfica’s early pressure. The goal came in the 24th minute, and Pavlidis provided the assist. It was a useful return from a defender who finished with one shot and scored it; more importantly for the match, it put Benfica in front before the break. Vitória had to manage the rest of the first half from behind, even though the score remained narrow.

The second goal came after Benfica’s changes and ended the uncertainty over the result. Echeverri assisted Sudakov in the 75th minute, just after both had entered the match. Sudakov’s goal made it 2-0 and turned a one-goal lead into a safer margin. The scoring details do not record the type of finish, so the significant point is the timing: Benfica found the decisive second after an hour in which Vitória had kept the score within reach. Both goals had a named assist, and each scorer made his only recorded shot count.

Benfica’s control was real, not just a product of the score. Their 62 per cent possession was close to their average of 63.38, while 23 shots ranked third-highest across their eight matches so far. Twenty attempts came from inside the box, their second-highest count across those eight matches. Eleven corners also ranked second-highest. These figures point to repeated pressure in useful areas, rather than a side content to keep the ball without advancing.

The limitation was accuracy. Benfica’s five shots on target sat below their average of 6.88 and ranked sixth across their eight matches so far, despite an expected-goals figure of 2.84, second-highest across the five matches with that measure. They scored twice, so the chances brought a win, but the target count shows why the contest was not settled earlier. Benfica also made only nine fouls, their best ranking across eight matches, and goalkeeper saves were not needed. The next step in this performance is clear: preserve the box entries, while making more of them test the goalkeeper.

Vitória SC had only 38 per cent possession, well below their average of 53.5, and it was their lowest figure across eight matches so far. Their eight shots were also far short of an average of 17.75, ranking seventh of eight. Five came from inside the box, compared with an average of 11.13, and that too ranked seventh. The six corners were a small positive: slightly above their average of 5.75 and third-highest across the same set of matches.

The sharper problem was the lack of a shot on target. Vitória’s expected goals were 0.46, below their average of 1.68 and their lowest ranking across the six matches with that figure. They had three shots blocked, but the overall numbers still point to limited danger rather than a run of near misses. Their 23 fouls were 7.25 above their average of 15.75 and ranked worst across eight matches; five players were booked. Oliwier Zych made three saves, which helped keep the score at 1-0 until the 75th minute. But the goalkeeper’s work could not compensate for the attack’s failure to test Samuel Soares.

Samuel Dahl had the clearest individual high point for Benfica. His rating of 8.69 was 1.93 above his season average of 6.76, and he scored the opener. He also completed 61 of 69 passes and won six of his eight duels. Sudakov played 17 minutes, scored, and rated 1.04 above his average of 6.82. Echeverri’s assist came alongside a rating of 6.89, below no supplied season comparison, so the assist is the firmer measure of his contribution.

Pavlidis assisted Dahl and created three key passes, although his rating was 0.24 below his average of 7.73. Prestianni also had a quieter game by his own standard: his rating of 7.2 was 1.36 below his average of 8.56. For Vitória, Arnel Jakupovic rated 0.24 above his average of 6.5, but none of his three shots was on target. Gonçalo Nogueira won 12 of 16 duels, while his rating was 0.5 below his average. The individual numbers mirror the team story: some useful work, but too little attacking return.

Expected goals strongly support Benfica’s win. Their figure was 2.84 against Vitória’s 0.46, an expected margin of 2.38. The actual margin was two, so the score was close to that chance-based reading, even if Benfica’s supplied finishing gap of -0.84 shows they scored fewer goals than their expected-goals total. That fits the match: the hosts generated enough to win comfortably, but their five shots on target from 23 attempts left room for a wider score.

The result probabilities also leaned heavily towards Benfica, at 0.859, with the draw at 0.103 and a Vitória win at 0.038. Those probabilities align with the expected-goals picture: Benfica were strongly favoured, and the match ended in their favour. They are not a substitute for the chances created on the night, though. Here, both measures point in the same direction, while Benfica’s missed opportunity to turn pressure into more accurate shots is the small qualification.

For Benfica, this was a convincing win without a fully convincing finishing display. Their strong box-shot and expected-goals figures suggest the approach created enough, while the lower-than-average shots-on-target count identifies the part that could improve. Vitória SC’s numbers ask a different question: how to turn possession and territory into attempts that make the opposing goalkeeper work. Their six corners offered a foothold, but no shot on target is the clearest measure of what was missing.

The match leaves three specific tests to watch in the next performances:

• Whether Benfica can lift their shots on target from five while keeping their high number of shots inside the box.
• Whether Vitória SC can move beyond zero shots on target and raise their inside-box attempts above five.
• Whether Benfica’s substitutes can again make a direct scoring contribution, as Sudakov and Echeverri did here.