Benfica found its answer after Santa Clara’s first-half lead

Santa Clara led Benfica at half-time, but the visitors scored twice in the second half to win 2-1. The result was shaped by a sharp contrast: Santa Clara put six of their 13 shots on target, while Benfica had only three on target from 15 attempts. Benfica still made their possession count when the decisive moments arrived.

Benfica held 61 per cent of the ball, but Santa Clara’s first-half plan brought the opening goal. Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira converted a penalty in the 32nd minute, putting the home team ahead despite their smaller share of possession. Benfica had 13 minutes to play before half-time, then made two changes at the interval, bringing on Andreas Schjelderup and Dodi Lukebakio.

The changes preceded a quick turnaround. Vangelis Pavlidis equalised in the 62nd minute, assisted by Gianluca Prestianni, and Prestianni scored six minutes later to put Benfica in front. Santa Clara made their first change at 67 minutes, when the score was level; by their next change, at 75 minutes, they were behind. The late substitutions could not alter the score.

Santa Clara’s opener came from the penalty spot in the 32nd minute. Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira took the chance and gave the home side a lead to defend. That scoreline made Benfica’s possession feel less valuable: they had controlled more of the ball, but Santa Clara had the advantage and were finding the target more often.

Benfica’s equaliser came in the 62nd minute. Prestianni assisted Pavlidis, whose goal levelled the match and rewarded the visitors’ second-half response. Six minutes later, Prestianni scored himself to complete the turnaround. The available match details do not specify the build-up to that goal, but its timing is clear: Benfica moved from chasing the game to leading it in a short spell. Santa Clara then had to find another answer, rather than protect their first-half lead.

Santa Clara’s attacking output was mixed rather than poor. Their 13 shots were close to their average of 13.22 across nine matches so far, while six on target was their second-highest total across those nine matches. Their expected goals of 1.36 were almost exactly in line with their average of 1.37, and ranked fourth across the seven matches used for that comparison. The issue was where some attempts came from: five shots were inside the box and eight were from outside it, against an average of 7.78 inside the box.

The possession figure was another departure from their usual level. Santa Clara had 39 per cent, 7.44 percentage points below their average of 46.44, and their seventh-lowest figure across nine matches. Their two corners were also below their 3.89 average. Benfica’s goalkeeper made five saves, so Santa Clara did test him, but their one goal came from a penalty. Lucas França made one save at the other end. Santa Clara’s 17 fouls were their highest total across nine matches, while the four yellow cards added to a stop-start night. The numbers show a team that threatened, but not one that controlled the game.

Benfica’s 61 per cent possession was below their average of 63.11, ranking seventh across nine matches so far. They also had fewer shots than usual: 15 against an average of 19.11, and only three on target against an average of 6.44. Three shots on target was their second-lowest total across those nine matches. Six of their 15 attempts were blocked, which helps explain why their control of the ball did not produce a larger tally of efforts testing Lucas França.

Their expected goals figure of 1.72 was below their average of 2.35, and ranked fifth across the six matches in that comparison. Six shots came from inside the box, far short of their average of 13.78; that was their lowest total across nine matches. Yet the two goals arrived when the game required them. Benfica also defended the lead after Prestianni scored, with Samuel Soares making five saves across the match. Their three corners were well below an average of 7.22, but the goals mattered more than the volume they usually generate. Benfica did enough in the decisive moments, even if their overall attacking numbers were subdued.

Prestianni’s goal and assist made him central to Benfica’s recovery. His rating of 8.23 was 0.16 below his season average of 8.39, so the match was influential without exceeding his usual level. Pavlidis scored the equaliser and rated 7.63, just 0.07 below his average of 7.7. Samuel Soares’ five saves accompanied a rating of 7.35, 0.44 above his season average of 6.91.

For Santa Clara, Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira scored the penalty and rated 7.39, though there is no season comparison attached to his performance. Lucas Soares rated 7.0, a substantial 1.86 above his average of 5.14, and put both of his shots on target. Others had a harder night by their own standards: Vinícius Lopes was 0.81 below his average, Pedro Pacheco 1.10 below, and Guilherme Romão 1.27 below. Those figures put the team’s mixed performance into sharper focus: individual efforts were there, but consistency across the side was not.

Expected goals gave Benfica the edge, but not by the full margin of the result. Santa Clara’s 1.36 against Benfica’s 1.72 produced an expected margin of minus 0.36 for the home team; the actual margin was minus one. That makes the 2-1 scoreline somewhat more decisive than the chance measure suggests, though it does not overturn the evidence that Benfica had the better expected-goals total.

The market leaned heavily towards Benfica before the result, with the away win assigned a probability of 91.1 per cent. The draw was given 8.7 per cent and a Santa Clara win 0.3 per cent. That reading agreed with the match outcome, while expected goals offered a closer contest than the market did. The two measures therefore point in different degrees, not different directions: Benfica were favoured and won, but their expected-goals advantage was modest.

Santa Clara’s defeat came despite a strong total of shots on target, so the question is whether they can keep creating attempts from better positions. Their expected goals stayed close to their average, but their number of shots inside the box fell well below it. Benfica, meanwhile, won while producing fewer shots and fewer box attempts than their usual figures. Their comeback showed a capacity to change the match, but the underlying attacking totals were not at their normal level.

• Whether Santa Clara can raise their shots inside the box from the five recorded here towards their average of 7.78.
• Whether Santa Clara’s six shots on target can again exceed their average of 3.78 across nine matches.
• Whether Benfica can lift their shots on target from three towards their average of 6.44 across nine matches.