Benfica punish Milan’s control at San Siro

AC Milan controlled the ball but not the match. Benfica left San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza with a 2-0 win after scoring once in each half, while Anatolii Trubin made four saves to protect a clean sheet. The result was harsh on Milan’s possession, but their 16 shots produced only four on target.

AC Milan began with more of the ball and finished with 61 per cent possession. Their passing was also clean, with 521 accurate passes from 567. Yet Benfica’s compact shape denied them a clear route through the middle, and Milan’s first-half pressure did not bring a goal. Benfica had only 39 per cent possession, their lowest figure across four matches compared, but they used their limited attacking moments well.

The first turning point came in the 16th minute, when Dodi Lukebakio put Benfica ahead from Jakub Kamiński’s assist. Milan made two changes at half-time, bringing on Pulisic and Mario Gila, but Benfica doubled their lead in the 53rd minute through Kamiński, assisted by Souffian El Karouani. Milan continued to have the ball, yet the second goal made Benfica’s defensive work even more valuable.

Benfica’s opener arrived before either team had built a clear statistical advantage in shots. At 16 minutes, Dodi Lukebakio finished a move created by Jakub Kamiński. That goal gave Benfica a platform: they could defend deeper, allow Milan to circulate the ball and wait for the next opening rather than chase possession.

The second goal came eight minutes after the interval. Souffian El Karouani supplied the assist and Kamiński finished, turning his first-half contribution into a goal and an assist. Milan’s substitutions did not change the score, although Pulisic recorded two shots on target in 49 minutes. Benfica therefore had the clearest reward for their attacks, even though Milan ended with five more shots.

AC Milan’s best work came in their control of the game. They completed 521 passes, reached nine corners and had eight shots from inside the box. Their 16 shots were five more than Benfica’s, and they committed 14 fouls to Benfica’s 12. Chukwueze gave them an outlet, with four key passes, six duels won and three successful dribbles.

The problem was the quality of the final action. Only four of Milan’s 16 shots were on target, while 10 missed the target and two were blocked. Their expected goals total was 0.96, and Anatolii Trubin still made four saves. Maignan made two saves and had 0.76 goals prevented, but he conceded twice. Milan’s early control became sterile after the interval, despite changes at 46, 57 and 73 minutes.

Benfica’s plan worked because their defensive numbers held up under pressure. They allowed Milan 61 per cent possession but gave up only four shots on target. Anatolii Trubin made four saves, and Tomás Araújo completed 39 of 41 passes while winning five of six duels. Daniel Banjaqui also won 10 of 14 duels and made seven tackles.

The trade-off was clear. Benfica had just one corner and produced 11 shots, with four on target and four blocked. Their four shots on target were their lowest total across four matches compared, while their 39 per cent possession ranked fourth. Even so, their 0.64 expected goals became two actual goals. The away side defended the lead through five changes, with the last arriving in the 88th minute.

Benfica’s strongest individual display came from Anatolii Trubin, who rated 8.5 after making four saves and conceding no goals. Tomás Araújo and Dodi Lukebakio both rated 8.2. Araújo’s defensive work supported the clean sheet, while Lukebakio scored one of Benfica’s two goals and put all three of his shots on target.

Jakub Kamiński rated 7.9 and directly shaped both goals, scoring once and assisting once. Souffian El Karouani rated 7.3 and added an assist. For Milan, Chukwueze rated 7.3 after creating four key passes and winning six duels. Alexis Saelemaekers and Mario Gila also rated 7.3, although Saelemaekers played 37 minutes and Gila played 49. Gonçalo Ramos rated 5.9 after taking three shots without scoring.

The expected-goals numbers make this result difficult to describe as a fully controlled Benfica performance. Milan finished on 0.96 expected goals against Benfica’s 0.64, giving Milan an expected-goals margin of 0.32. The actual margin went the other way by two goals, and Milan’s finishing gap was -0.96.

The result probabilities point in the same direction. Milan were given 41.8 per cent, the draw 34.6 per cent and Benfica 23.6 per cent. Those figures made a Benfica win the least likely of the three outcomes, while the expected-goals model also favoured Milan’s chance quality. Benfica still earned the result through two finishes and four saves from Trubin. The numbers say Milan were unlucky in the scoreline, but not blameless for failing to turn pressure into goals.

AC Milan’s next response will be measured by whether control leads to better chances. Nine corners and eight shots inside the box offered a base, but four shots on target and 0.96 expected goals were not enough to trouble Benfica. The timing of the changes also matters: the first two came at half-time, after Milan had fallen behind in the 16th minute.

Benfica can take confidence from a win built on defensive concentration rather than territory. Their 39 per cent possession and one corner were both low outputs by their comparisons, yet they scored twice and kept Milan out. The next test is whether that balance can hold when the finishing margin is less generous. Three details will show where this result leads:

• Whether AC Milan turn their 16 shots and nine corners into more than four shots on target.
• Whether Benfica improve on four shots on target, their lowest figure across four matches compared.
• Whether Anatolii Trubin can maintain the level shown by his four saves and 8.5 rating.