Benfica’s early burst settled it, but Celtic found a way back

Benfica beat Celtic 4-1, with three goals before half-time doing the damage. The scoreline reflected Benfica’s ability to punish openings, but not a complete lack of threat from Celtic: both teams put seven shots on target, and Celtic scored soon after the break. Benfica’s greater volume of attempts and stronger expected-goals figure explain why the win was deserved.

Benfica’s penalty put them ahead after five minutes, and Alexander Bah doubled the lead in the 23rd minute. Jhon Durán’s second goal, in the 36th minute, made it 3-0 before the break. The sequence left Celtic with a steep task, and their two changes at half-time came while they were three goals behind.

Celtic’s response arrived in the 63rd minute, when Camilo Durán scored with Haissem Hassan providing the assist. That goal gave the visitors a foothold, but Benfica’s lead remained two goals and the home side made four changes between the 64th and 68th minutes. Vangelis Pavlidis then scored in the 89th minute to restore the three-goal margin. Celtic had a spell of hope; Benfica’s late goal closed it down.

Durán opened the scoring from the penalty spot. That early goal gave Benfica the advantage before the match had settled, and Bah extended it with a normal goal in the 23rd minute. Gianluca Prestianni assisted Bah, then set up Durán for Benfica’s third thirteen minutes later. Two assists in that first-half spell made Prestianni central to the lead, while Durán’s second goal put Benfica three ahead.

Celtic did not leave the contest without a reply. Camilo Durán’s goal came from a Hassan assist, and it cut the deficit to two at a point when Benfica had not yet made their first change. The goal gave the visitors a reason to press for more, but Benfica kept Celtic from turning that moment into a sustained recovery. Pavlidis, on as a substitute, scored from a Tomás Araújo assist in the 89th minute. That fourth goal made the final margin three again.

Benfica had 26 shots, including 20 from inside the box, and made eight corners. The number of attempts was backed by a clear edge in expected goals: 2.59 against Celtic’s 1.25. Seven of Benfica’s shots were on target, fewer than their average of 8.6. That was their fourth-ranked figure across five matches so far, so this was not their sharpest display for hitting the target, even as four goals made it a highly productive one.

The possession figure also sat below the team’s recent level. Benfica had 53 per cent, compared with an average of 57.8 per cent, and that ranked fourth across five matches so far. Yet their eight corners were above the average of 6.2 and ranked second in that same comparison. Benfica’s 574 passes included 524 accurate passes, while their goalkeeper made six saves. Celtic still found seven shots on target, so Benfica’s clean control was not total; the early lead and their capacity to create chances mattered more.

Celtic produced seven shots on target from 14 attempts, matching Benfica’s on-target total despite taking 12 fewer shots. Their 12 shots from inside the box were also a route into dangerous areas, and Camilo Durán’s goal showed that they could turn one of those opportunities into a score. Hassan assisted that goal after coming on at half-time, and his two shots were both on target.

The problem was the scale of the work left by the first half. Celtic had 47 per cent possession and made 516 passes, with 459 accurate, but the figures did not stop Benfica from reaching 20 shots inside the box. Celtic’s goalkeeper made three saves, while Benfica’s made six. That difference points to pressure at both ends: Benfica tested the keeper more often, and Celtic also needed their own goalkeeper to keep the score from stretching further. The late fourth goal removed the chance of a closer finish.

Gianluca Prestianni assisted two of Benfica’s first-half goals and created nine key passes. He also took seven shots, three on target, and completed five of eight dribble attempts. Jhon Durán scored twice from five shots and won all three of his duels. Those contributions explain why the pair had such a strong influence on Benfica’s start.

Bah added a goal, while Araújo assisted Pavlidis’s late finish and completed 70 of his 74 passes. For Celtic, Camilo Durán scored and won seven of 11 duels. Hassan made an assist after entering at half-time, put both his shots on target and created two key passes. These numbers show individual contributions in this match; they do not establish how those players performed against their own usual level.

Expected goals gave Benfica a 2.59 to 1.25 advantage, an expected margin of 1.34. The actual margin was three, so Benfica finished 1.41 goals above that expected margin. That is a meaningful difference: the scoreline made the win look more emphatic than the chance-quality measure alone would suggest.

The supplied result probabilities put Benfica at 0.662, the draw at 0.172 and Celtic at 0.165. They favour a Benfica win, which agrees with the expected-goals advantage and the final result. The gap between expected and actual margin still matters. Benfica were the deserved winners, but the four goals should not be read as proof that Celtic created nothing: their seven shots on target and one goal show otherwise.

Benfica’s win came with less possession and fewer shots on target than their averages across five matches so far. Their ability to create 26 attempts and score four despite those lower figures gives the result two sides: a ruthless attack, and room to improve their usual control. Celtic, meanwhile, had enough threat to match Benfica’s on-target count, but the early three-goal deficit shaped the whole contest.

Celtic’s goal after the break showed a response, but it did not bring the match back within one goal. Their changes began at half-time, while Benfica’s first changes came after Celtic had scored. The result leaves the key question less about whether Celtic could create chances and more about whether they can avoid giving an opponent such an early cushion. For Benfica, the balance between possession and dangerous attacks is the thread to follow.

• Whether Benfica can lift possession above the 53 per cent recorded here, against a five-match average of 57.8 per cent.
• Whether Benfica can turn more of their 26 shots into efforts on target, after recording seven against an average of 8.6.
• Whether Celtic can keep opponents away from the danger areas after allowing 20 Benfica shots from inside the box.