Benfica won narrowly, but the numbers back their control

Benfica beat Alverca 1-0, with Vangelis Pavlidis converting the penalty that separated the teams after a goalless first half. The score stayed tight, but Benfica had more of the ball and the better expected-goals total. Alverca made the contest awkward; they did not create enough from their limited time in Benfica’s half to make the result look like a fluke.

Benfica controlled possession from the start, finishing with 65 per cent against Alverca’s 35. Yet the first half did not bring a goal. Alverca’s Yahya Bojang was shown a yellow card in the 15th minute, then had a goal cancelled by VAR in the 25th. The data records the decision, but not its reason, so the moment stands as a turning point without changing the score.

Benfica changed Andreas Schjelderup for Claudio Echeverri at half-time. Six minutes later, Pavlidis scored from the penalty spot, and Alverca spent the rest of the match trying to find a reply. Their first changes came in the 59th minute, while Benfica brought on Rafa ten minutes later. Alverca did reach four shots on target, matching Benfica, but the visitors’ four shots inside the box were fewer than half of Benfica’s nine. The game turned on one penalty, but its underlying shape favoured Benfica.

Pavlidis supplied the match’s only goal, scoring a penalty in the 51st minute. It arrived soon after Benfica’s half-time change, with the teams level at 0-0. The timing mattered: Benfica had possession and had already kept Alverca from building a lead, but the deadlock meant their control still needed a decisive action. Pavlidis provided it, and the goal gave Benfica a cushion they protected to the end.

There is little else to describe as a scoring move: the event data identifies a penalty, not the incident that led to it. Nor did Benfica add a second goal to make the result comfortable. Alverca’s earlier goal cancellation remains the other major event around the score, but it did not change the 0-0 half-time position. After the penalty, Alverca made two changes in the 59th minute and more later, while Benfica’s next change came at 69 minutes. The goal changed the match from a contest for the opener into a test of whether Alverca could answer.

Benfica’s 65 per cent possession was above their average of 63.4 and ranked third across their 10 matches compared. That control did not produce their usual volume of attacks. Their 13 shots were below an average of 18.6 and ranked eighth of 10, their lowest mark alongside four shots on target, also eighth. Even with nine shots inside the box, that total sat below their average of 13.4 and ranked seventh.

The same gap appears in chance quality. Benfica’s expected goals of 1.68 were below their 2.27 average, and ranked sixth across the seven matches compared. Three shots were blocked, and only four of 13 attempts hit the target. Still, the home side found enough to score, while Samuel Soares made four saves to keep Alverca out. Benfica also won eight corners, above their average of 7.3, and committed 10 fouls, below their average of 12 and second-lowest across 10 matches. This was control without their usual attacking output, but the defensive work gave that control value.

Alverca had only 35 per cent possession, below their 40.5 average and ranked seventh across their 10 matches compared. Their eight shots were also below an average of 11.5 and ranked eighth, their fewest mark. Only four came from inside the box, against an average of seven; that ranked eighth as well. The visitors managed four shots on target, a little above their average of 3.8 and fifth of 10. They made the most of their target count, but did not create enough attempts from close range to sustain a serious threat.

Alverca’s expected goals of 0.62 were well below their 1.17 average and ranked fifth across the eight matches compared. Four shots came from outside the box, and only one was blocked. Matheus Mendes made three saves, giving Alverca a chance to stay in the game after conceding, but the team could not turn that resistance into a goal. Their five corners were above an average of 4.6 and ranked fourth across 10 matches, while 15 fouls were slightly above their 14.1 average. The effort to disrupt Benfica was clear; the limited box threat explains why it did not earn a point.

Pavlidis scored the winner and rated 7.8, just 0.05 above his season average. His rating was close to his usual level, but his penalty gave the match its only goal. Samuel Soares rated 8, which was 1.09 above his own average, and made four saves. Samuel Dahl’s 7.75 was 0.75 above his average; he won 11 of 15 duels and made eight tackles. Tomás Araújo rated 7.56, 0.24 above his average, and completed 90 of 99 passes.

Gianluca Prestianni’s 6.65 rating was 1.8 below his season average of 8.45, the clearest below-average display among Benfica’s featured contributors. He still won 10 of 17 duels and completed four of eight dribbles, but his rating marks a sharp drop from his own standard. Andreas Schjelderup rated 6.8, 0.42 below his average, before making way at half-time. For Alverca, Sergi Gómez rated 6.64, an improvement of 1.92 on his season average of 4.72, and made four interceptions. Chiquinho’s 6.51 was 0.87 below his average, despite two key passes and five fouls drawn.

Expected goals gave Benfica 1.68 and Alverca 0.62, an expected margin of 1.06. The actual margin was one, so the scoreline was close to the difference in chance quality. Benfica’s finishing gap was -0.68: they scored once despite an expected-goals figure of 1.68. That points to a match they could have won by more, rather than one in which they were unusually clinical.

The market assessment agreed strongly with the result. The recorded probabilities gave Benfica a 98.9 per cent chance of winning, a draw 1.1 per cent and Alverca no probability. Benfica did win, so both measures support the outcome: the expected-goals figures show the home side created the better chances, and the market had heavily favoured them beforehand. Neither measure says the match was easy. The single-goal scoreline and the below-average attacking figures show why Benfica still had to manage the final stretch carefully.

Benfica’s win leaves them second on 22 points after nine matches, with seven wins, one draw and one defeat. It also extends a run of five wins listed in their recent results. The performance offers a split verdict: their possession and defensive work were strong, but their shot count and expected goals came in below their own averages. The next measure of progress is whether that control can again produce more of their usual attacking volume.

Alverca remain ninth on 11 points after nine matches, with three wins, two draws and four defeats. Their recent results include two defeats before this match, followed by the loss at Benfica. They matched the hosts for shots on target, but their low shot and inside-box totals show where the gap was. The cancelled goal and the four saves by Matheus Mendes show there were moments of resistance, but the numbers point to a need for more sustained danger in the penalty area. Three things to watch are:

• Whether Benfica’s shot total moves back towards their 18.6-match average.
• Whether Benfica’s expected goals rise towards their 2.27 average.
• Whether Alverca create more than four shots inside the box.