Casa Pia punish Estoril after late turnaround

Estoril created the stronger statistical platform but still lost 2-1 to Casa Pia at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. They had 53 per cent possession, 14 shots and six on target, yet Casa Pia’s five saves and two goals after the interval decided a match that changed quickly.

The first half gave Estoril the ball, but not the lead. Their 53 per cent possession was their second-highest figure across seven matches, while 14 shots ranked third and six on target ranked second. Casa Pia still found the clearest route to the opening goal when Henrique Araújo missed a penalty in the 27th minute. The interval arrived at 0-0.

The game opened after the break. Estoril made their first change at 45 minutes, then made two more at 60. Ricard Sánchez put them ahead in the 70th minute from Jordan Holsgrove’s assist. Casa Pia responded two minutes later through Silvi, supplied by Lawrence Ofori. Estoril then conceded again in the 89th minute, when Benjamin Pauwels scored from Sebastián Pérez’s pass. The late goal left Estoril with pressure but no reward.

Estoril’s opener finally gave shape to their possession. Ricard Sánchez scored in the 70th minute, with Jordan Holsgrove providing the assist. It was the reward for a home team that had already registered six shots on target, but it did not settle the match. Casa Pia answered almost immediately.

Silvi levelled in the 72nd minute from Lawrence Ofori’s assist. The equaliser meant Casa Pia had turned a missed penalty into a live contest rather than a lost opportunity. Their winner came in the 89th minute. Benjamin Pauwels, introduced in the 65th minute, finished from Sebastián Pérez’s assist. The changes mattered at both ends: Estoril’s first three came before their equaliser, while Casa Pia’s substitutes helped create the winning goal.

Estoril did plenty right with the ball. Their 53 per cent possession was seven points above their seven-match average of 46 per cent and their second-best figure in that group. Their 14 shots were also above the average of 12.71, while six on target stood above the average of 4.43 and ranked second. Seven corners were their second-highest total, compared with an average of 4.86.

The problem was that this pressure did not become enough control in the key moments. Seven shots came from inside the box and seven from outside, with two blocked. Joel Robles made no saves, while Casa Pia’s Ivan Mandić made five. Estoril also conceded twice after taking the lead, and their response to the equaliser did not prevent the late winner. The wider picture is mixed: their seven fouls were their lowest total across seven matches, but defensive security did not match their work in possession.

Casa Pia were second-best for possession, with 47 per cent, but that was still above their seven-match average of 45 per cent and ranked third for them. They also matched Estoril’s seven shots from inside the box. Their 11 shots were above an average of 10.29, and their three on target were above an average of 2.71. The attack was not constant, but it was effective when the match opened.

The goalkeeper made the difference behind that efficiency. Ivan Mandić saved five shots, giving Casa Pia room to recover from Estoril’s pressure. Casa Pia’s 11 fouls were close to their average of 11.43, while four corners were close to their average of 4.14. They missed a penalty in the 27th minute, fell behind in the 70th, and still scored twice. Their substitutions also had a direct effect: Benjamin Pauwels scored after entering in the 65th minute, and Sebastián Pérez assisted after entering in the 74th.

Estoril’s best performance came from Jordan Holsgrove. His rating of 7.7 was above his season rating of 6.73, and he added an assist, five key passes and 68 accurate passes. Ricard Sánchez also finished above his own level, with 7.1 against a season rating of 6.65, as well as the opening goal. Those were important contributions in a team that had the ball but lost.

Yanis Begraoui moved the other way. His 6.38 rating was below his season rating of 7.05. Joel Robles rated 5.68 against 6.82, while Isma Sierra rated 5.48 against 6.77. For Casa Pia, Benjamin Pauwels rated 7.7 against 6.85 and scored the winner. Ivan Mandić rated 7.6 and made five saves. Silvi rated 7.56 against 6.85, while Lawrence Ofori rated 7.38 against 6.32 and assisted the equaliser. Those performances turned a difficult game into a win.

The market had made Estoril the more likely winner before kick-off. Its probabilities gave Estoril 0.553, the draw 0.25 and Casa Pia 0.197. Casa Pia therefore won against the pre-match view, with the away outcome carrying the lowest of the three listed probabilities.

The match numbers explain how that happened. Estoril had more possession, more shots and more efforts on target, while Casa Pia needed five saves from Mandić. Yet the score was decided by Casa Pia’s two goals after the interval, including the winner in the 89th minute. The market measure and the match control pointed towards Estoril, but the finishing moments pointed towards Casa Pia. A different reading would follow if Estoril’s pressure produced more than one goal or if Casa Pia did not receive such a strong goalkeeping performance.

Estoril leave this match with evidence that their attacking platform can improve. Their possession, shots, shots on target and corners all ranked among their better figures across seven matches. The concern is that one goal was not enough after Casa Pia found two responses. Their goalkeeper made no saves, while the visitors’ goalkeeper made five, so the next test is whether Estoril can make their territorial advantage safer at both ends.

Casa Pia can take the result seriously without ignoring the warning signs. They missed a penalty, had only three shots on target and relied on Mandić’s five saves. Still, their substitutes contributed directly to the winning goal, and their two goals after Estoril went ahead changed the story. The next match should be read through three measures:

• Whether Estoril can turn their 53 per cent possession and 14 shots into more than one goal.
• Whether Estoril’s goalkeeper is required to make more than zero saves while the team protects a lead.
• Whether Casa Pia can maintain their three shots on target and five-save defensive platform when the game becomes open.