Copenhagen’s late goals turn control into a 3-0 win

FC Copenhagen beat SC Braga 3-0, turning a tight contest into a decisive home win with two goals in the final stretch. Braga had more possession, but Copenhagen made much more of its chances: five shots on target to Braga’s one. The scoreline was emphatic; the expected-goals gap was far narrower.

The first half ended goalless, with SC Braga enjoying the greater share of the ball. That pattern held after the interval: Braga finished with 62 per cent possession, while FC Copenhagen had 38 per cent. Yet the home side’s attacks carried more immediate threat. Copenhagen put five of its eight shots on target; Braga managed one from five.

Mohamed Elyounoussi broke the deadlock in the 49th minute. Braga made two changes on the hour, then had a goal from Ricardo Horta ruled out for offside in the 63rd minute. That denied Braga an equaliser and left Copenhagen ahead. Andreas Cornelius, introduced in the 61st minute, scored in the 79th and again in the 86th. The first goal widened the gap; the second settled the result.

Elyounoussi’s goal arrived four minutes after half-time and gave Copenhagen the lead. The match details record no assist for the opener, so the clearest point is its effect: Braga now had to find a way past a side that had already been more accurate with its attempts. Horta’s disallowed goal followed, but the offside decision meant the score stayed 1-0.

Copenhagen’s second goal came from a link between Meling and Cornelius. Meling supplied the assist in the 79th minute, with Cornelius scoring after coming on as a substitute. Seven minutes later, Cornelius scored again, this time assisted by Maseko. The second strike completed a late double for the forward and turned one-goal control into a three-goal margin. The sequence was especially striking because Braga had held possession for most of the match, but could not turn it into a sustained scoring response.

FC Copenhagen did not need to dominate the ball to create the clearer threat. Its five shots on target came from eight attempts, and seven of those attempts were inside the box. Still, this was below the team’s usual volume: eight shots was 5.43 below its average of 13.43 and its second-lowest total across seven matches compared. Its five shots on target were also below its average of 6.71.

There was a useful contrast in the way Copenhagen used possession. Its 38 per cent share was below its average of 45.29 and the second-lowest across seven matches compared. But its pass accuracy of 83 per cent was its best in those matches, above an average of 81.57. The side also had fewer shots inside the box and corners than its averages. So this was not a performance built on a flood of chances. The one save recorded by Ramaj and 0.1 goals prevented show that the goalkeeper’s contribution was limited; Copenhagen’s stronger return came from converting its attacks.

SC Braga’s 62 per cent possession was 6.8 points above its average of 55.2 and its second-highest figure across five matches compared. Its pass accuracy of 88 per cent was also its best across the three matches compared, above an average of 86. The team could keep the ball, but that control did not carry through to the penalty area. Braga managed five shots, four inside the box, and only one on target.

The shortfall was not just a single poor attempt. Five shots were 4.33 below Braga’s average of 9.33 across the three matches compared, while four shots inside the box were three below its average of seven. Its one shot on target was 2.6 below its average of 3.6, and its fewest across five matches compared. Braga also won three corners, below its average of 5.2. Its goalkeeper made two saves, with 0.1 goals prevented. That contribution could not undo the damage from the three goals conceded, while Braga’s own one shot on target left little room to recover.

Andreas Cornelius had 22 minutes and scored twice. His rating of 7.7 was 0.08 below his season average of 7.78, a small dip on a match-winning contribution. Mohamed Elyounoussi scored the opener, but his rating of 7.2 was 0.18 below his average of 7.38. Junnosuke Suzuki’s rating of 7 was 0.6 above his average of 6.4.

Robert’s rating of 7 was below his average of 7.62 by 0.62, despite his side winning comfortably. That is a reminder that the result and an individual’s usual level are different measures. Meling’s assist for Cornelius’ first goal was a direct contribution to the win, while Maseko supplied the second assist. Braga’s strongest listed rating belonged to Demir Tıknaz at 7.3, but the team’s limited threat mattered more than any one player’s rating. Braga’s only shot on target came from Diogo Travassos.

Expected goals give Copenhagen 1.03 and Braga 0.54, an expected margin of 0.49. The actual margin was three, with a finishing gap of 1.97. That points to Copenhagen getting more from its chances than the expected-goals measure alone would suggest, rather than the sides creating chances in keeping with a three-goal difference.

The shot counts support the same broad reading, but not a claim that the win was undeserved. Copenhagen put five of eight attempts on target; Braga put one of five on target. The home side did more with its opportunities, while the expected-goals figures suggest the underlying chance advantage was modest. The disallowed Horta goal was a significant moment for Braga, but it does not erase the gap in accurate shots or change the final score.

For Copenhagen, the result offers a clear example of how precise passing and accurate finishing can overcome a lower share of possession. The comparison to its other matches also shows where this performance differed: possession, total shots and shots inside the box were all below its averages, while pass accuracy reached its best mark across seven matches compared. A repeat of the result would need the sharpness in front of goal to remain present.

For Braga, the issue is more direct. Strong possession and accurate passing did not produce enough attempts on target, and the team’s figures for shots and corners were below their averages. Its two changes at the hour came while trailing 1-0, but the side did not find an equaliser. The numbers point to three details worth watching:

• Whether Copenhagen can raise its shot total above the eight recorded here while keeping its pass accuracy high.
• Whether Braga can turn possession closer to its 62 per cent share into more shots on target than one.
• Whether Copenhagen’s substitutes can keep making a scoring difference after Andreas Cornelius’ two goals from the bench.