Estrela had the pressure; Casa Pia had the finish

Estrela had the ball, the shots and the stronger expected-goals figure, but Casa Pia left with a 2-0 win. The difference was not a lack of home pressure: Estrela’s 18 shots and 1.72 expected goals were both among their best figures so far. Casa Pia’s goalkeeper made six saves, and the visitors scored at the moments that mattered.

Estrela began with control of the ball and ended with 63 per cent possession, their highest share across nine matches so far. Their 18 shots were their second-highest total, while six hit the target, also their second-highest tally. Casa Pia had less of the ball, but their 37 per cent possession did not prevent them from finding the first goal.

João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo put Casa Pia ahead in the 31st minute, assisted by Mohamed El Boukammiri. That gave the visitors a lead to protect and left Estrela chasing the game for the rest of the match. Estrela made their first changes in the 61st minute, still 0-1 behind. The second goal arrived in the 90th minute, with added time shown, leaving no time for a response.

Casa Pia’s opener came through João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo, who scored in the 31st minute with Mohamed El Boukammiri providing the assist. It was a significant return from a side that had managed only 10 shots in the match. Estrela, by contrast, had already shown they could reach dangerous areas, but they could not turn their possession into a goal before the break.

The 0-1 scoreline held through Estrela’s changes and Casa Pia’s own substitutions. Then Lawrence Ofori scored in the 90th minute, assisted by Henrique Araújo, to make it 2-0. The timing mattered as much as the goal: Estrela’s 18 attempts had not produced an equaliser, and the late strike turned a narrow away lead into a two-goal result. The details supplied do not describe the build-up to either finish, but the contrast in outcomes is clear.

Estrela’s possession was not empty control. Their 63 per cent was the highest of their nine matches so far, and their 18 shots ranked second. They also recorded 14 shots inside the box, their best total across nine matches, and seven corners, also their highest. The six shots on target and 1.72 expected goals were each second-best figures in the relevant season comparisons. This was a notably productive attacking display by Estrela’s usual measures, even if the scoreline makes it easy to overlook.

The cost was at both ends. Estrela’s goalkeeper made two saves, while Casa Pia’s Patrick Sequeira made six, a difference that fits the story of one side creating more and the other keeping its goal intact. Seven of Estrela’s shots were blocked, and five more missed the target. Their first changes came in the 61st minute, after 30 minutes behind, with five changes made in total. The figures point to a side that found routes to shoot, but not enough clean finishes to change the match.

Casa Pia did not need to match Estrela’s share of the ball. Their 37 per cent possession ranked seventh across nine matches so far, while their 10 shots were close to their season average of 9.67. Four shots on target was their second-highest tally, and their 0.81 expected goals was their best figure across seven matches compared. Those numbers show a side that created more than its usual expected-goals return, without needing a large volume of attempts.

The defence had to absorb a lot. Casa Pia blocked three shots, and Patrick Sequeira’s six saves helped preserve the lead as Estrela pressed for an equaliser. Casa Pia’s five corners were their second-highest total across nine matches, and their 13 fouls were close to their average of 12.22. The visitors also made two changes at the 60th minute, while they were ahead 1-0, then held that advantage until Ofori’s late goal. Their success rested on the goalkeeper’s work and on scoring twice from a smaller attacking share.

For Estrela, Patrick Luan finished 1.52 above his own season average, and Santiago Serra was 1.03 above his. Serra also made five tackles, while Luan completed 77 of 82 passes. Ianis Stoica rated 1.15 below his average, despite taking three shots, none on target. Leandro Antonetti was 1.09 below his average and won five of 18 duels. Those comparisons suggest that Estrela’s attacking difficulty was not shared equally across the team.

Casa Pia’s two scorers both had strong nights against their own benchmarks. Lawrence Ofori rated 1.77 above his season average, while João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo was 1.34 above his and won 12 of 19 duels. Mohamed El Boukammiri, who assisted the opener, rated 0.92 above his average. Patrick Sequeira’s six saves supported the result, though his match rating is not supplied against his own average. These performances give the away win a clear individual backbone.

Expected goals strongly favoured Estrela’s performance: 1.72 for them against 0.81 for Casa Pia, an expected margin of 0.91 in Estrela’s favour. The actual margin was two goals the other way. That gap says Estrela created the better chances by this measure, but failed to score, while Casa Pia scored twice from a lower expected-goals total. It does not erase the visitors’ defensive work, especially Sequeira’s six saves.

The season comparisons reinforce that reading. Estrela produced their highest possession and shots-inside-the-box totals so far, plus their second-highest shot and shot-on-target counts. Casa Pia’s expected-goals figure was also their best across seven matches compared, so their attack exceeded its usual level. The evidence points to a combination: Estrela’s output deserved more than zero, but Casa Pia’s finishing and goalkeeping made the difference. The match was not simply a case of one side creating nothing.

For Estrela, the immediate question is whether this attacking volume can produce a different outcome. Their 1.72 expected goals was above their average of 1.45, and their 14 shots inside the box were a season high across nine matches. Yet the team left with no goals. The result makes finishing and the response to falling behind the clearest measures to follow, rather than possession alone.

Casa Pia can take confidence from a win built on more than a single moment. Their expected-goals total beat their average, and Sequeira made six saves as the team protected its lead. The league table lists Casa Pia 17th on four points and Estrela 10th on 10, so the result carries different weight for each side. Three details will show whether this match was a turning point in performance, not just scoreline.

• Whether Estrela can turn a high count of shots inside the box into goals.
• Whether Estrela’s possession and shots on target remain above their season averages.
• Whether Casa Pia can keep combining saves from Patrick Sequeira with an expected-goals return above their average.