Estrela’s better chances could not stop Benfica’s late winner

Estrela led Benfica on expected goals but still lost 3-2, with Vangelis Pavlidis scoring the winner in the 90th minute. The hosts had just two shots on target, yet their two goals brought the game level each time. That makes this a defeat shaped by both waste and fine margins: Estrela had the better chance-quality total, but Benfica kept finding a way back in front.

Benfica had most of the ball and more attempts, but their first goal came only in the 26th minute. Gianluca Prestianni finished a move assisted by Claudio Echeverri. Estrela went into half-time a goal behind, then Lovro Zvonarek levelled in the 48th minute with Rafa Soares providing the assist. The game was open again before the hour.

Benfica regained the lead through an own goal by Bernardo Schappo in the 68th minute. Estrela replied through Leandro Antonetti eight minutes later, assisted by Joan Jordán. With the score at 2-2, both teams made further changes, but the final decisive action belonged to Benfica: Pavlidis scored in the 90th minute, assisted by Andreas Schjelderup. Estrela had fought back twice; neither equaliser proved lasting.

Prestianni’s opener gave Benfica the lead after Echeverri set him up in the 26th minute. It was a useful reward for the visitors’ control of possession, though their overall expected-goals figure remained low. Estrela’s response arrived almost immediately after the interval. Zvonarek made it 1-1 in the 48th minute, with Rafa Soares credited with the assist, and the hosts had turned a half-time deficit into a level game.

The second swing came in the 68th minute, when Schappo put the ball into his own net and Benfica moved ahead again. Estrela did not fold: Antonetti equalised in the 76th minute, assisted by Jordán. That goal made the final stretch a contest for the next breakthrough rather than a defence of a lead. Benfica found it late. Schjelderup, on as a substitute, assisted Pavlidis in the 90th minute to settle the match at 3-2.

Estrela’s two goals and 1.35 expected goals show that the hosts could create moments with real threat. That expected-goals figure was close to their season average of 1.34 and ranked fifth across eight comparisons. But the wider attacking picture was unusually thin. Estrela had seven shots, their lowest total across 11 matches, against an average of 12.55. Four came from inside the box, also well below their 8.73 average.

Just two shots hit the target, compared with a season average of 3.82; that ranked eighth of 11. Estrela’s 37 per cent possession was their second-lowest figure in those 11 matches, and their single corner was also near the bottom of their range. Léo Linck made three saves, but his rating was 1.06 below his own season average. Estrela’s expected-goals advantage says they were not simply shut out of good chances. Their low shot and on-target totals show why they could not turn that edge into a safer position.

Benfica’s 63 per cent possession was close to their 63.36 per cent average, and their 560 passes compared with Estrela’s 338. They also had 15 shots and 10 corners. The corners were a clear strength: that total ranked third across 11 matches and stood above their 7.55 average. Yet the possession and shot count did not translate into their usual level of chance quality. Benfica produced 0.69 expected goals, against a 2.07 average, ranking eighth across eight comparisons.

Eight of Benfica’s shots came from inside the box, far below their 12.91 average, while five attempts were on target against a 6.09 average. Their total shots were also below their 18.27 average. The numbers point to a side that spent plenty of time in attacking territory but did not make enough of it. Benfica’s two goals from open play, plus the own goal, were enough to win; Samuel Soares made no saves. Their ability to score late mattered more than the volume of possession, but the gap between their expected goals and their actual three goals was stark.

For Estrela, Zvonarek and Antonetti both scored and rated above their season averages. Zvonarek’s rating was 0.47 above his usual mark; Antonetti’s was 0.42 higher. Rafa Soares assisted Zvonarek, then finished 0.27 below his own average. Jordán’s assist for Antonetti came during a 23-minute appearance, but no season rating comparison is supplied for him.

Benfica’s winning scorer Pavlidis rated 0.41 above his season average, while Schjelderup’s assist came with a rating just 0.03 below his. Prestianni scored, but his rating was 0.28 below his own average. Echeverri assisted the opener and rated above his season mark, though no comparison is supplied for his match rating. At the other end, Samuel Soares was 1.19 below his average, but Estrela’s two shots on target meant the goalkeeper was not asked to make a save.

Expected goals favour Estrela: 1.35 against Benfica’s 0.69, a margin of 0.66. The actual margin went the other way, with Estrela losing by one. That 1.66-goal gap between the expected and actual margins captures the mismatch, though it does not erase Estrela’s shortage of shots or Benfica’s greater attacking volume. The hosts had the better expected-goals case, but they did not make it count on the scoreboard.

The market snapshot lists Benfica’s probability at 6.9 per cent, against 1.1 per cent for Estrela and 92 per cent for a draw. Its recorded time was after kick-off, so it cannot stand as a pre-match view of the result. The measures therefore do not offer two comparable forecasts: expected goals describe the chances in the match, while this market figure is a later snapshot. The strongest fair conclusion is that Estrela had better chance quality, while Benfica were more clinical and took the late opening.

For Estrela, the result extends a difficult run in the five previous results listed: four defeats and one win. They remain 12th with 10 points after 10 matches. The performance offers a counterpoint to that run, because their expected-goals total sat almost exactly at their season average and above Benfica’s. But the lowest shot total of their 11 comparisons and only two efforts on target are a clearer measure of what needs to improve.

Benfica are second with 25 points after 10 matches, and their five previous results listed were all wins. This victory keeps that record intact, but their 0.69 expected goals and below-average shot numbers point to a less productive attack than their usual one. Both teams can take something from the match: Estrela showed they could answer setbacks, while Benfica showed they could win despite making fewer high-quality chances than usual. Three numbers will sharpen the next assessment:

• Whether Estrela lift their shot total above seven after recording their lowest mark across 11 matches.
• Whether Estrela’s shots on target rise from two towards their 3.82-match average.
• Whether Benfica’s expected goals recover from 0.69 towards their 2.07 average.