Rio Ave held their nerve after Nacional punished the red card

Rio Ave beat Nacional 3-2 in a match that turned on a red card but was not decided by it. João Tomé was sent off with Rio Ave 2-1 ahead; Nacional levelled two minutes later, only for Rio Ave to win a penalty and retake the lead. Rio Ave’s attacking output was unusually strong, and that gave them a way to survive the pressure.

Nacional struck first through Njoya Kader in the 32nd minute, with Francisco Gonçalves providing the assist. Rio Ave answered seven minutes later when Sebastian Clemmensen scored. The teams went into the break level, and the match remained tight after it resumed. João Tomé received a yellow card in the 50th minute, then a red card four minutes later, leaving Rio Ave with ten players.

Rio Ave still moved in front through Diogo Bezerra in the 57th minute, assisted by Clemmensen. Nacional’s response was immediate: Kader scored again two minutes later. At 2-2, the contest looked set to turn towards the visitors, but Rio Ave were awarded a penalty after a VAR review and Jalen Blesa converted in the 72nd minute. The red card made Rio Ave’s task harder; it did not stop them from finding the decisive goal.

Nacional took the lead with a clear connection between scorer and provider. Francisco Gonçalves assisted Njoya Kader for the 32nd-minute goal. Rio Ave’s reply came from Sebastian Clemmensen in the 39th minute. The available match details record it as a normal goal, without specifying the finish, so the key fact is the timing: Rio Ave restored parity before half-time rather than letting Nacional carry their lead into the break.

The second half delivered four goals and the match’s sharpest swings. Diogo Bezerra put Rio Ave ahead in the 57th minute, with Clemmensen assisting, but Kader scored his second just two minutes later. That quick answer made Nacional’s response count, especially with Rio Ave already down to ten men. A VAR review confirmed a penalty for the hosts in the 69th minute. Blesa scored from it three minutes later, restoring Rio Ave’s lead and ultimately deciding the match.

Rio Ave had 56 per cent possession, their highest figure across their eight matches so far, against a season average of 44.5 per cent. They made that control count more than usual: their seven shots on target were also a season high, compared with an average of 3.13. Their eleven shots were their second-highest total, while six shots inside the box and eight corners were both season bests. This was not possession without threat.

The quality measures support that reading. Rio Ave’s 1.74 expected goals were their highest across the six matches compared for that measure, well above their 0.68 average. Their shot mix included six attempts from inside the box and five from outside, with four blocked. Vitor Hugo made three saves, a useful contribution in a game Nacional also threatened. The cost was João Tomé’s dismissal in the 54th minute, which gave the visitors a chance to exploit the extra space. Rio Ave conceded quickly after going ahead, but their own attacking volume kept the match within reach.

Nacional had 44 per cent possession, below their 49.88 per cent average and their seventh-lowest figure across eight matches. They did not need the ball as much to generate attempts. Their thirteen shots were their second-highest total, and their five efforts on target were a season high. Nine shots came from inside the box, also above their average of 6.38. Eight corners set another season high, giving Nacional repeated opportunities to put pressure on Rio Ave.

Nacional’s 1.27 expected goals were their second-highest total across the six matches compared, above their 0.98 average. Yet Rio Ave produced the stronger figure, and Nacional’s thirteen attempts yielded two goals rather than a winning margin. Renato Bellucci made three saves, matching Vitor Hugo’s total, but could not keep out Rio Ave’s three goals. Nacional committed seventeen fouls, their worst mark across eight matches and well above an average of 11.13. Their chance creation was real; their control of the match was less convincing, particularly after conceding the penalty.

For Rio Ave, the most striking individual comparisons belong to Gustavo Mancha and Georgios Liavas. Mancha’s rating was 2.14 above his own season average, while Liavas finished 1.79 above his. Diogo Bezerra scored and rated 0.58 above his average; Jalen Blesa scored the penalty and was 0.5 above his. Clemmensen scored and assisted before coming off in the 63rd minute, though the data does not provide his season average for comparison.

Njoya Kader’s two goals made him Nacional’s leading scorer on the night, but no season-rating comparison is supplied for him. Francisco Gonçalves assisted the opener and rated 2.94 above his own average. By contrast, goalkeeper Renato Bellucci rated 0.98 below his average, while Daniel Júnior was 1.15 below his. Those comparisons show how much Nacional’s attacking contribution was concentrated in Kader and Gonçalves, while Rio Ave had several players producing above their normal level.

Expected goals give Rio Ave the clearer case. They recorded 1.74 against Nacional’s 1.27, an expected margin of 0.47 in their favour. The actual margin was one goal, so the final score was more comfortable than that measure suggests, but it was not a result against the run of chances. Rio Ave’s seven shots on target, their season high, also fit the picture of a side that created a meaningful threat.

The market probabilities point in a different direction. The recorded probabilities gave Rio Ave a 95.4 per cent chance of winning, with 4.6 per cent for a draw and 0.1 per cent for Nacional. That made the home win the strongly favoured outcome in the market data, even though the match itself was close enough for a late penalty to decide it. The measures therefore agree on the winner, but differ on how routine the result should have been: expected goals suggest a narrow edge, while the market heavily favoured Rio Ave.

Rio Ave leave with a win built on numbers well above their usual attacking output, but the sending-off and Nacional’s quick equaliser show how fragile their lead became. Their next challenge is not simply to keep possession; it is to turn that possession into the same volume of dangerous attempts while avoiding the defensive disruption that followed João Tomé’s dismissal. Nacional can take encouragement from making thirteen attempts and creating 1.27 expected goals, but their improved threat did not bring a result.

Both teams entered the match after difficult runs in their previous results: Rio Ave had a win and a draw among their five, while Nacional’s five listed results were all defeats. This result gives Rio Ave a response, while Nacional’s two goals and shot volume offer a more positive attacking measure than the outcome alone. Three details will help show whether either side can carry something forward:

• Whether Rio Ave can again beat their season averages of 44.5 per cent possession and 3.13 shots on target.
• Whether Nacional can turn a shot total near this match’s thirteen into more than two goals.
• Whether either side can reduce its foul count: Rio Ave made seven here, while Nacional made seventeen.