Salgueiros’ home form meets Estoril’s late-game weakness

Salgueiros host Estoril in the Taça de Portugal Round of 64, with the tie set for Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 15:00 PT. Salgueiros have won both of their recorded matches, both at home. Estoril arrive after a run of defeats, and their scoring data points to a late spell worth watching.

Salgueiros have played twice this season and won both matches at home. They beat Sousense 2-1 and then kept a clean sheet against Feirense in a 1-0 win. That gives them a simple reference point for this cup tie: both results came on their own ground, and they have yet to fail to score.

Estoril’s recent results show a different pattern across home and away fixtures. They have lost their last three matches, including away defeats at Academico Viseu and SC Braga, and a home loss to Casa Pia. Their latest result was a 1-2 defeat away to Academico Viseu. In the six results listed, they also drew at home with Arouca, while their home and away records show two failures to score each.

Salgueiros’ two wins offer the clearest team-level reference ahead of the tie: they scored three goals across those matches and conceded once. Estoril have scored three times in their last six results, with four of those matches ending in defeat. Those figures make the contrast in recent output clear, without relying on an individual player’s contribution.

Estoril’s six listed results begin with a 0-2 home defeat to Rio Ave and a 1-2 loss away to Benfica. They then drew 0-0 with Arouca at home, before losing 0-1 away to SC Braga. Defeats to Casa Pia and Academico Viseu followed, both by 1-2. The order matters: their latest three results are all losses.

Estoril’s underlying figures suggest those results have been harsher than their chance balance alone. Across six measured matches, their expected-goals margin is minus 1.21, while their actual margin is minus six. They have averaged 0.95 expected goals for and 1.15 expected goals against per match. That is a narrow expected-goals difference, but the outcomes have been much less kind.

Estoril’s measured matches point to a side that has been able to take shots, even when results have not followed. They have averaged 13.5 shots and 5.3 shots on target per match, with 46.7 per cent possession. Their average of 78.7 per cent pass accuracy offers another part of the picture: they have had the ball and produced attempts, but averaged 0.95 expected goals.

Salgueiros have one measured underlying match, so there is no like-for-like profile here to set against Estoril’s figures. The clearest available contrast is in results: Salgueiros have won twice at home, while Estoril’s last three matches have ended in defeat. Estoril’s expected-goals-against average of 1.15 also gives Salgueiros a reason to test the defence, though the data does not identify an individual creator or ball-winner for this contest.

Salgueiros’ two recorded matches this season were both at home: a 2-1 win over Sousense and a 1-0 win over Feirense. They have kept one clean sheet in those two matches and scored in both. This is a Round of 64 tie in the Taça de Portugal, with the match listed for Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 15:00 PT.

Estoril’s next listed fixture is in the Primeira Liga, 7.1 days after this match. That gives the cup tie a place in a sequence with a league fixture to follow. The available fixture information gives no opponent for that next match, so the focus here remains on the Taça de Portugal meeting with Salgueiros.

Salgueiros bring two home wins into the tie, while Estoril’s recent sequence and scoring timings offer clear points to follow. Keep these three details in view as the match develops.

• Salgueiros have scored once in the 76-90 minute band, their only recorded goal this season.
• Estoril have scored most often in the 61-75 minute band, with two of their four goals coming in that period.
• Estoril have conceded four goals in the 76-90 minute band, their highest-conceding period; Salgueiros have yet to concede in their two matches.