Tondela and Alverca meet with very different momentum

Tondela and Alverca meet in the Taça de Portugal Round of 64 with contrasting recent momentum. Alverca have won their last three listed matches, while Tondela's latest result was a 5-1 win after three defeats in the four results before it. The key question is whether Tondela can make that scoring burst count in this home fixture.

The immediate contrast is momentum. Alverca have taken three wins in a row, including away victories at Famalicao and Nacional. Tondela arrive after a 5-1 away win over Imortal Albufeira, but their four results before that brought three defeats and a draw. Tondela will want to carry their latest attacking display into a home match; Alverca will look to keep their run going away from home. Neither recent sequence guarantees anything here, but both give the opening spell extra interest.

The home and away results offer useful context. Tondela's listed home results include a 1-1 draw with Nacional and a 2-0 win over Moreirense. Alverca's recent away wins came at Famalicao and Nacional, while their away loss in that sequence was at Sporting CP. So the venue has not stopped either team finding a result: Tondela have won at home, and Alverca have won on the road. The question is which pattern carries more weight in this meeting.

Neither club has a reported absence or announcement to alter the team picture for this preview.

Alverca's three latest results are wins: 4-1 away to Famalicao, 1-0 at home to Rio Ave, and 3-1 away to Nacional. Before that run came a home defeat to SC Braga, a draw with Santa Clara and an away loss to Sporting CP. Those opponents give the recent sequence useful range, from wins on the road to setbacks against SC Braga and Sporting CP. Across six measured matches, Alverca's expected-goals margin is -2.07, while their actual margin is +3. The results have been stronger than the chance balance suggests, so the winning run is clear but the underlying picture is less comfortable.

Tondela's latest win, 5-1 away to Imortal Albufeira, followed defeats to Rio Ave and Famalicao. Their preceding results also include a draw at home to Nacional, a loss at Arouca and a home win over Moreirense. That is a mixed run rather than a settled climb. In two measured matches, Tondela's expected-goals margin is +0.07 and their actual margin is +1. The figures are close, though the small sample means the underlying profile offers only a narrow read. Tondela's main task is to make the latest win part of a more consistent sequence.

The possession figures point towards a match in which neither team usually keeps the ball for long spells. Tondela average 43.5 per cent possession across two measured matches; Alverca's figure is 41.5 per cent across six. Both sides use a 3-4-3 as their usual formation, so the shape may look familiar from one end to the other. The question is whether either can turn that structure into a more sustained spell of pressure.

The attacking numbers give Alverca the sharper edge in the measured sample. They average four shots on target per match, compared with 2.5 for Tondela, and their expected goals per match are 1.21 against Tondela's 0.98. Tondela's average of 12.5 shots is higher than Alverca's 11.3, but fewer of those efforts have hit the target. That makes accuracy a clear point to watch for the hosts. For Alverca, the test is to keep creating chances while managing a Tondela side that has just scored five.

There is also a defensive difference in the expected-goals figures. Tondela concede an average of 0.95 expected goals per match across their two measured games; Alverca's figure is 1.55 across six. The sample sizes are not the same, so the comparison is not like for like. Still, it sets up a useful tension: Alverca have been more productive in front of goal, while Tondela's measured defensive profile is tighter. How well each side can make its own strength show on the pitch may shape the rhythm.

Tondela and Alverca have met twice in the supplied head-to-head record. Alverca have one win and there has been one draw; Tondela have not won either meeting. Venue matters here: the match at Tondela finished 1-1, while Alverca won 1-0 at home. That away result gives Alverca a positive reference for this trip, but the draw at Tondela is just as relevant to the setting. Two meetings are a small sample, so the history offers context rather than a rule for this fixture. The recent form and the home and away results provide more detail about the teams' current approaches.

Alverca's next listed fixture is in the Primeira Liga, six days after this match. That gives their schedule a clear next point after the cup tie, but it does not tell us what selection choices the club will make here. The fixture itself is the immediate focus: Alverca must first handle Tondela away before that league assignment arrives. Tondela's next fixture is not part of this preview's available schedule, so there is no comparable turnaround to set alongside Alverca's.

The numbers point to three clear threads during the match: Tondela's response at home, Alverca's ability to turn pressure into shots on target, and the different periods when each side tends to score or concede.

• Can Tondela build on the 5-1 win over Imortal Albufeira? Their listed home results include a draw and a win, while their latest home result was the draw with Nacional.
• Watch Alverca's shooting accuracy against Tondela's defence. Alverca average four shots on target per match, while Tondela concede 0.95 expected goals per match across two measured games.
• The scoring windows offer a timing clue. Tondela's peak scoring band is 16-30, while Alverca score most often in 31-45; Alverca also concede most often in 46-60.